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Revival of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline: How Far Will It Go?
Sajid Aziz writes on Pakistan's domestic challenges to complete the Iran-Pakistan gas pipelines. He writes that while Iran completed its section of the gas pipeline, Pakistan failed to develop its part due to U.S. sanctions and financial constraints. This has led to strained mutual relations and overt threats, with Iran asking Pakistan to either fulfill its part of the deal by constructing the pipeline or face a penalty to the tune of $18 billion. Tehran has also threatened to take Pakistan to the Paris-based Arbitration Court if it fails to meet its commitments under the bilateral agreement. Pakistan's decision to revive the stagnant IP gas project is primarily to avert a whopping $18 billion penalty, an important consideration given Pakistan’s dire economic situation with dwindling reserves, a recurring crisis of fiscal deficit, and high inflation. A few years back, Pakistan barely avoided incurring a significant financial burden of over $6 billion penalty owed to Barrick Gold, a multi-national corporation based in Canada, through renegotiation of an agreement. Going forward, how is Pakistan going to complete the pipelines? Read this piece by Sajid Aziz here.
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Japan: No Indo-Pacific Order Without International Order
How does Japan prioritizes its order in Indo-Pacific? Jagannath P. Panda, Richard Ghiasy and Julie Yu-Wen Chen writes that in April, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, in his address to the joint meeting of the U.S. Congress, made the case for a stronger “global partnership” with the United States as part of a commitment to preserve “indispensable” U.S. leadership. Two things stood out: One of the mainstays was the imperative for realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), which, as Kishida said, could soon face “harsher realities.” Second, highlighting the “loneliness and exhaustion” of the United States as the sole “country that has upheld the international order almost singlehandedly,” Kishida staked a claim toward co-sustaining a coalescing Indo-Pacific order and international order. Such a perspective about the alliance’s present and future gives impetus to the argument that Japan’s FOIP vision, which was first crafted by Japan’s former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo – widely seen as a China hawk – in 2007, will now evolve to include a deepening of Japan’s role in and beyond the region’s security and economic order. Indeed, FOIP under Kishida conceptually and strategically increasingly falls under the aegis of the Free and Open International Order (FOIO) to stress the interconnectedness of the two and adherence to the rule of law in the international order. Japan no longer wants to trail but co-lead. But how would this work? Read this co-authored piece by Jagannath Panda, Richard Ghiasy and Julie Yu-Wen Chen at The Diplomat.
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Could India’s relationship with China change under the new Modi government?
Jagannath Panda writes that India’s policy approach toward China under Modi 3.0 will brook no compromises on the boundary dispute – and thus will overall be non-flexible on strategic security matters; stay on course for strengthening India’s technology-oriented defense cooperation with the United States; and pursue the thus-far successful multi-aligned pointed diplomacy with India’s “like-minded” Indo-Pacific and other partners in Asia (namely Central, East, Southeast, and West) and beyond. In its immediate neighborhood of South Asia, the Himalayan sub-region, and the Indian Ocean region, India will continue to expand its outreach and presence. At the same time, India’s security relationship with Russia – amid the growing China-Russia convergence – will be of prime importance, given that India has not isolated its historical partner despite pressure from the West in the wake of the Ukraine war. In essence: there will be a shift in India’s approach to China, from territorial to geopolitical, to maintain a rules-based, free, open Indo-Pacific gaining greater steam, writes Jagannath Panda in this ISPI report.
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Japan’s Energy Security in the Persian Gulf: Caught Between New and Old Challenges
Alexandre Brans in this Focus Asia paper delves into the evolution of Japan’s energy strategy in the Persian Gulf and understand how intra-Asian competition for business opportunities in the region can impact Tokyo’s energy security. It analyzes the current state of defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) between leading East Asian and Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC). DCAs are considered among the most relevant tools available to states to build up strategic partnerships. Successful DCAs with GCC states are therefore an indicator of political and security commitment. The research analysis concludes that Japan has yet to engage with Gulf countries—let alone catch up with other East Asian powerhouses—on security partnerships. Consequently, Japan is likely to miss the opportunity to foster deeper engagements with key GCC oil and gas suppliers and suffer growing energy insecurity as a result. Read this paper by Alexandre Brans here.
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The Iron Lady of the Baltics Poised to Reshape EU Foreign Policy
Get ready for a transformative chapter in EU diplomacy! This article by Brian Iselin argues that Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s resolute Prime Minister, is emerging as the frontrunner for the role of EU Foreign Policy Chief. Renowned for her uncompromising stance against Russian aggression and steadfast dedication to democratic values, Kallas is poised to bring a bold and decisive leadership to the EU's foreign affairs. Iselin explores how her leadership could reshape NATO cooperation, enhance European defence capabilities, and redefine the EU’s approach towards China and Taiwan. Don’t miss this insightful analysis!
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Anticipating North Korea’s Next Nuclear Test
This issue brief by Baik Seung Hyuk provides a comprehensive analysis of the anticipated technical and strategic objectives behind North Korea’s potential seventh nuclear test, along with an examination of the probable timing for such an event. Drawing upon recent developments, including North Korea’s pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons and its political aspirations for cementing its nuclear status, the issue brief explores the interplay of domestic and international factors shaping Pyongyang’s decision-making. With insights into North Korea’s evolving nuclear capabilities, the analysis delves into the significance of the upcoming U.S. presidential election as a potential catalyst for nuclear testing and its implications for regional dynamics. Furthermore, the brief by Baik underscores the imperative for the United States and other stakeholders to adopt a nuanced approach towards negotiations, grounded in the principle of denuclearization, while remaining vigilant against North Korea’s strategic maneuvers to leverage nuclear testing for diplomatic advantage.
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EU Elections 2024: Redrawing the Chessboard
Johannes Nordin writes on the evolving background politics in Brussels post the election. He argues that the post-election horse-trading for policy concessions and high posts in Brussels is in full swing currently, reflecting the new balance of power in the EU Parliament for the coming five years. The conservative European People’s Party (EPP) has remained the largest grouping in the parliament, while the liberal Renew Europe (RE) and the Greens/EFA lost ground, the Socialist Group (S&D) and the Left stagnated, and the broader far-right made gains. The parliament’s new constellations, early EU Council bargains, and domestic spillover effects in the EU’s three diplomatic heavyweights – Italy, France, and Germany – illuminate the challenges ahead in forming the next EU Commission. How far will that affect EU's domestic political harmony and foreign policy directives in times to come? Read this piece by Johannes Nordin here.
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EU-Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Resilience amid the Digital and Green Transition
As the European Union (EU) sets ambitious goals of maximizing a ‘Digital Decade’ through its Digital Transition plan and attaining carbon neutrality in its Green Transition plan, technology becomes the essential factor for the region to achieve its vision of a modern Europe. For decades, the region has relied on East Asia as a major source of technological inputs and finished products, especially for semiconductors. Among many major companies in the region, Taiwan’s Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) stands out to be the most important supplier of microchips for many modern economies. However, in recent years, supply chain integrity has become a significant topic for policy discourse amid various factors that may disrupt and negatively affect the flow of goods. This issue brief by Niklas Swanström and Kurt Abalos seeks to provide an overview of the EU-Taiwan semiconductor supply chain in the context of the EU’s Digital and Green Transitions, and suggestions to strengthen the supply line between both sides.
Latest Publications
Japan: No Indo-Pacific Order Without International Order
In April, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, in his address to the joint meeting of the U.S. Congress, made the case for a stronger “global partnership” with the United States as part […]
Japan’s Energy Security in the Persian Gulf: Caught Between New and Old Challenges
The goal of this paper is to investigate the evolution of Japan’s energy strategy in the Persian Gulf and understand how intra-Asian competition for business opportunities in the region can […]
The Iron Lady of the Baltics Poised to Reshape EU Foreign Policy
The European Union’s foreign policy landscape is bracing for seismic upheaval as Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s indomitable Prime Minister and outspoken critic of Russian belligerence, emerges as the frontrunner for the […]
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