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Deciphering North Korea’s Military Activities
In 2024, the growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula have highlighted the unpredictability of North Korea’s military intentions. This issue brief by Hanbyeol Sohn and Taehyun Kim evaluate the strategic behaviors of North Korea, particularly under the leadership of Kim Jong Un. By analyzing public military activities, often portrayed as a “show of force,” it attempts to interpret the underlying political and strategic intentions that North Korea aims to convey both domestically and internationally. The analysis suggests that these displays serve multiple functions, including deterrence, coercion, and internal governance. This issue brief contributes to a more nuanced understanding of North Korea’s military posturing and proposes considerations for a rational strategy in the ROK-U.S. alliance’s approach towards the regime. Read this issue brief by Hanbyeol Sohn and Taehyun Kim here.
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Strong Europe-Japan Relations are a Legacy of Shinzo Abe
Jagannath Panda and Kei Hakata recollect the strategic memoire of (late) Shinzo Abe in enhancing EU-Japan relations. They argue that Abe was a firm proponent of strengthening a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Not only was he steering Japan away from total dependence on the U.S. for its security, but was actively pursuing the creation of a coalition of like-minded democracies. The Euro-Indo-Pacific alignment is his prime legacy standing guard against Beijing-sponsored coercion and a bellicose North Korea. Read this co-authored piece by Jagannath Panda and Kei Hakata in The Japan Times.
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Revival of Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline: How Far Will It Go?
Sajid Aziz writes on Pakistan's domestic challenges to complete the Iran-Pakistan gas pipelines. He writes that while Iran completed its section of the gas pipeline, Pakistan failed to develop its part due to U.S. sanctions and financial constraints. This has led to strained mutual relations and overt threats, with Iran asking Pakistan to either fulfill its part of the deal by constructing the pipeline or face a penalty to the tune of $18 billion. Tehran has also threatened to take Pakistan to the Paris-based Arbitration Court if it fails to meet its commitments under the bilateral agreement. Pakistan's decision to revive the stagnant IP gas project is primarily to avert a whopping $18 billion penalty, an important consideration given Pakistan’s dire economic situation with dwindling reserves, a recurring crisis of fiscal deficit, and high inflation. A few years back, Pakistan barely avoided incurring a significant financial burden of over $6 billion penalty owed to Barrick Gold, a multi-national corporation based in Canada, through renegotiation of an agreement. Going forward, how is Pakistan going to complete the pipelines? Read this piece by Sajid Aziz here.
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Japan: No Indo-Pacific Order Without International Order
How does Japan prioritizes its order in Indo-Pacific? Jagannath P. Panda, Richard Ghiasy and Julie Yu-Wen Chen writes that in April, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, in his address to the joint meeting of the U.S. Congress, made the case for a stronger “global partnership” with the United States as part of a commitment to preserve “indispensable” U.S. leadership. Two things stood out: One of the mainstays was the imperative for realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), which, as Kishida said, could soon face “harsher realities.” Second, highlighting the “loneliness and exhaustion” of the United States as the sole “country that has upheld the international order almost singlehandedly,” Kishida staked a claim toward co-sustaining a coalescing Indo-Pacific order and international order. Such a perspective about the alliance’s present and future gives impetus to the argument that Japan’s FOIP vision, which was first crafted by Japan’s former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo – widely seen as a China hawk – in 2007, will now evolve to include a deepening of Japan’s role in and beyond the region’s security and economic order. Indeed, FOIP under Kishida conceptually and strategically increasingly falls under the aegis of the Free and Open International Order (FOIO) to stress the interconnectedness of the two and adherence to the rule of law in the international order. Japan no longer wants to trail but co-lead. But how would this work? Read this co-authored piece by Jagannath Panda, Richard Ghiasy and Julie Yu-Wen Chen at The Diplomat.
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Could India’s relationship with China change under the new Modi government?
Jagannath Panda writes that India’s policy approach toward China under Modi 3.0 will brook no compromises on the boundary dispute – and thus will overall be non-flexible on strategic security matters; stay on course for strengthening India’s technology-oriented defense cooperation with the United States; and pursue the thus-far successful multi-aligned pointed diplomacy with India’s “like-minded” Indo-Pacific and other partners in Asia (namely Central, East, Southeast, and West) and beyond. In its immediate neighborhood of South Asia, the Himalayan sub-region, and the Indian Ocean region, India will continue to expand its outreach and presence. At the same time, India’s security relationship with Russia – amid the growing China-Russia convergence – will be of prime importance, given that India has not isolated its historical partner despite pressure from the West in the wake of the Ukraine war. In essence: there will be a shift in India’s approach to China, from territorial to geopolitical, to maintain a rules-based, free, open Indo-Pacific gaining greater steam, writes Jagannath Panda in this ISPI report.
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Japan’s Energy Security in the Persian Gulf: Caught Between New and Old Challenges
Alexandre Brans in this Focus Asia paper delves into the evolution of Japan’s energy strategy in the Persian Gulf and understand how intra-Asian competition for business opportunities in the region can impact Tokyo’s energy security. It analyzes the current state of defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) between leading East Asian and Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC). DCAs are considered among the most relevant tools available to states to build up strategic partnerships. Successful DCAs with GCC states are therefore an indicator of political and security commitment. The research analysis concludes that Japan has yet to engage with Gulf countries—let alone catch up with other East Asian powerhouses—on security partnerships. Consequently, Japan is likely to miss the opportunity to foster deeper engagements with key GCC oil and gas suppliers and suffer growing energy insecurity as a result. Read this paper by Alexandre Brans here.
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The Iron Lady of the Baltics Poised to Reshape EU Foreign Policy
Get ready for a transformative chapter in EU diplomacy! This article by Brian Iselin argues that Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s resolute Prime Minister, is emerging as the frontrunner for the role of EU Foreign Policy Chief. Renowned for her uncompromising stance against Russian aggression and steadfast dedication to democratic values, Kallas is poised to bring a bold and decisive leadership to the EU's foreign affairs. Iselin explores how her leadership could reshape NATO cooperation, enhance European defence capabilities, and redefine the EU’s approach towards China and Taiwan. Don’t miss this insightful analysis!
Latest Publications
Deciphering North Korea’s Military Activities
In 2024, the growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula have highlighted the unpredictability of North Korea’s military intentions. This issue brief evaluates the strategic behaviors of North Korea, particularly under […]
Strong Europe-Japan Relations are a Legacy of Shinzo Abe
Abe was a firm proponent of strengthening a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Not only was he steering Japan away from total dependence on the U.S. for its security, but […]
Japan: No Indo-Pacific Order Without International Order
In April, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, in his address to the joint meeting of the U.S. Congress, made the case for a stronger “global partnership” with the United States as part […]
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