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New President, Old System: Business as Usual in Iran
Prabhat Jwala writes on the domestic political conditions in Iran. He argues that when Raisi took over as President, hardliners dominated every segment of elected and unelected institutions and there was little scope for shifting blame. With reformists again in power, the hardliners would see it as a great opportunity because they do not have to take the blame for any governance failure while they can keep enjoying power in the system through other means. For these reasons, hopeful analyses of changes in Iranian policies under a reformist President could prove incredulous, argues Prabhat Jwala. He writes that ultimately, the reformists’ ability to secure the presidency may be a win for reformists as a group within Iran, but the polarization and militarization in Iranian society coupled with economic woes and social unrest within the public – half of which did not even vote – is going to be a pyrrhic victory for the reformists. Meanwhile, the overall situation in Iran will hardly see any change. Read this piece by Prabhat Jwala here.
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Taiwan-PRC Crisis: What Cross-Strait Conflict Could Cost Europe
The escalating tensions between Taiwan and China pose significant economic and strategic challenges to the European Union, such as the inaccessibility of Taiwanese inputs, market, and capital. This issue brief by Niklas Swanström, Agust Börjesson, Filip Borges Månsson and Kurt Abalos aims to examine Europe’s economic stake in the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. By outlining EU-Taiwan’s economic ties and emphasizing European interest in the self-governing island, this issue brief highlights the potential costs of a cross-strait crisis in Europe and what actions Europe needs to take. It additionally examines two scenarios of an armed conflict: a blockade and an all-out war. In its conclusion, the issue brief provides a perspective of Europe’s stake in cross-strait peace and stability.
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Resilience of Indian Democracy Demands New Analytical Framework
Aniket Bhavthankar writes on Indian democracy and its resilience under the current conditions. He writes, in foreign policy, there could be a visible shift towards unapologetic and confident global interaction, with a focus on being a friend of the world (Vishwabandhu) rather than a teacher (Vishwaguru). It is worth noting that while Indian diplomacy has at times been perceived as overly didactic and even arrogant, the concept of Vishwabandhu alludes to pragmatic and equal partnerships based on the rationality of the issues at hand. Bhavthankar further writes that PM Modi has pushed for India as the Mother of Democracy based on the presence of the Uttaramerur Inscription from the 9th Century and other literary evidence. In essence, it underscores the need for a multifaceted analytical framework to understand the complexities of India’s political landscape. Read this piece by Aniket Bhavthankar here.
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Why the Himalayan Region Is Integral to a Rules-Based Order in the Indo-Pacific
Can the Himalayas as a whole be featured as a primary focus of the Indo-Pacific strategies, not just as a byline to specific conflicts be it vis-à-vis India or Tibet? Jagannath Panda, Ryohei Kasai and Eerishika Pankaj argue that If the United States and democracies in Asia and Europe such as the EU states, India, and Japan, are serious about the intent to preserve a rules-based order, then they must acknowledge that the threat from China is not limited to its so-called autonomous regions in the Himalayas or the neighboring states, but covers China’s multidirectional expansionism, which has been going on for years. Given the current sliding geopolitical landscape and Xi’s focus on achieving his “China Dream” goals, including national rejuvenation and integration, the Indo-Pacific democracies have no choice but to put impetus into examining and upending China’s attempts at sinicizing the Himalayan (dis)order. Read this piece by Jagannath Panda, Ryohei Kasai and Eerishika Pankaj at The Diplomat here.
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India-Sweden Strategic Compass
How are India-Sweden relations progressing in 2024 and ahead? The year 2023 was especially remarkable with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations and multiple ministerial-level visits, including S. Jaishankar’s notable visit that saw discussions on the Indo-Pacific, European strategic situation, and de-risking the global economy – a successful pivot to the growing strategic linkages between the two sides. India and Sweden must now push for elevating their ties, as well as strengthening India-EU cooperation, including providing impetus to the India-EU FTA talks (the seventh round concluded in February 2024) and enhanced coordination at the Trade & Technology Council (TTC). The TTC was announced in 2022, and under which new initiatives have been launched earlier this year (e.g., start-up collaboration on Recycling of E-Vehicles Batteries). Read more in the latest India-Sweden Strategic Compass, a bi-monthly newsletter, of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) of the ISDP.
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Increasing Chinese Influence in Western Myanmar Calls for Stronger Bangladesh-India Ties
This piece by Khandakar Tahmid Rezwan reviews the Chinese position on the current Myanmar politics by drawing implications for Bangladesh and India. The author writes that the Western Myanmar, comprising Chin and Rakhine states, has been a geopolitically sensitive and significant area where rebels have established their control and dominance. These states border India and Bangladesh. The Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) taking control of these states have good relations with China but have complicated relationships with Bangladesh and India. Given these aspects, Bangladesh and India must facilitate greater cooperation to achieve stability, security, and geopolitical leverage, especially against these Chinese-aligned EAOs, writes Khandakar Tahmid Rezwan. Read this blog piece here.
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China Expands Legal War against Taiwan and Its Like-minded Partners
How is China expanding its legal means against Taiwan and its internationally supporting partners? On the 21st of June, China issued the “Notification on Punishment of “Taiwan Independence” Diehards Who Commit Crime of Splitting the Country and Inciting the Secession. It is a new legal notification enacted based on “Anti-Secession Law and the “Criminal Law of the People’s Republic of China” from the Supreme People’s Court, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, and the Ministry of Justice. The new legal guideline specifies that it is forbidden to propagate Taiwan’s international space and alternative interpretations of what constitutes China. These are strong domestic Chinese legal measures against Taiwan. But how is China going to use these domestic initiatives as a legal means against Taiwan internationally? To know more, read this piece by Niklas Swanström, Yi-Chieh Chen and Agust Börjesson here.
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Strong Europe-Japan Relations are a Legacy of Shinzo Abe
Jagannath Panda and Kei Hakata recollect the strategic memoire of (late) Shinzo Abe in enhancing EU-Japan relations. They argue that Abe was a firm proponent of strengthening a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Not only was he steering Japan away from total dependence on the U.S. for its security, but was actively pursuing the creation of a coalition of like-minded democracies. The Euro-Indo-Pacific alignment is his prime legacy standing guard against Beijing-sponsored coercion and a bellicose North Korea. Read this co-authored piece by Jagannath Panda and Kei Hakata in The Japan Times.
Latest Publications
Taiwan-PRC Crisis: What Cross-Strait Conflict Could Cost Europe
The escalating tensions between Taiwan and China pose significant economic and strategic challenges to the European Union, such as the inaccessibility of Taiwanese inputs, market, and capital. This issue brief […]
Why the Himalayan Region Is Integral to a Rules-Based Order in the Indo-Pacific
In June 2024, former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi minced no words in criticizing the Chinese government and President Xi Jinping for the persecution of Tibetans, including attempts to erase their culture. […]
Strong Europe-Japan Relations are a Legacy of Shinzo Abe
Abe was a firm proponent of strengthening a free, open and rules-based Indo-Pacific. Not only was he steering Japan away from total dependence on the U.S. for its security, but […]
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