24 ISDP Picks: Publications to Reflect on 2024
In 2024, the various programs and centers of the ISDP, as well as guest authors, published a considerable number of publications. Now at the end of the year, we would like to share a selected list of 24 publications by ISDP colleagues to look back on the eventful year.
January:
Asia Paper: Sino-Russian Relations, From Where – To Where, by Mats Engman, Zack Nhan, and Tove Jalmerud
Since 1949, the relationship between the Soviet Union/Russia and China has fluctuated between alliance and conflict, driven by shared interests and ideological disputes. Initially marked by mutual benefit, tensions arose following Stalin’s death, Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization policies, and ideological divergences, culminating in a near-halt of Sino-Soviet cooperation. By the 1970s, détente emerged, and reformist leaders like Mikhail Gorbachev and Deng Xiaoping fostered improved relations. In the post-Cold War era, shared opposition to a Western-dominated world order has driven closer cooperation, particularly under Putin and Xi, culminating in the “no-limit friendship.” Despite asymmetries in the partnership and potential future challenges, their alignment on global perceptions and mutual interests suggests the relationship will continue to deepen in the coming decade.
Special Paper: NAVIGATING THE CHINA CONTEST: EU’S MARITIME ROAD TO 2030 AND MIDDLE POWERS, by Jagannath Panda
Europe’s strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific has gained importance due to China’s disruptive maritime posture and assertive stance on regional disputes. This paper examines how the EU is reshaping its strategic outlook through frameworks like the Maritime Security Strategy (MSS), Strategic Compass, and Indo-Pacific Strategy. These evolving policies focus on regional maritime multilateralism alongside bilateral partnerships, aligning with the interests of Quad powers—India, Australia, Japan, and the US—to counterbalance Chinese dominance. The Indian Ocean, as a gateway to the Indo-Pacific, offers significant potential for EU-Quad convergence in enhancing maritime security and fostering a rules-based order. By fostering bilateral and multilateral ties, the EU aims to enhance its geopolitical presence and influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
February:
Issue Brief: Russia-DPRK Relations: Implications for the UNSC’s Mandate, by Frida Lampinen
The burgeoning military cooperation between Russia and North Korea poses a significant challenge to global security. While often simplified as a product of converging interests between old friends, this relationship is deeply rooted in the broader geopolitical dynamics and both states’ diplomatic pivot away from the liberal West. This issue brief argues that irrespective of whether the arms deal sustains momentum beyond the Ukraine war, the strengthened DPRK-Russia ties undermine the UN Security Council’s role as the principal forum for addressing the North Korean nuclear issue. Additionally, this development threatens to accelerate the widening rift between liberal and autocratic spheres of influence.
Issue Brief: The Political Split at the Heart of Taiwan’s Struggle against Foreign Disinformation, by Agust Börjesson and Yi-Chieh Chen
Taiwan’s struggle against foreign disinformation, particularly concerning China’s influence on its 2024 election, has received significant global attention. This issue brief explores both the domestic and international dimensions, highlighting the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) eight-year effort to enhance democratic resilience and foster partnerships with like-minded democracies. These efforts have elevated Taiwan’s concerns to the international arena, aligning with the DPP’s strategy for closer ties with democratic allies. However, the domestic divide between the DPP and the Kuomintang (KMT) on managing China relations remains a significant obstacle. Without closer convergence, the issue risks being politicized, keeping Taiwan’s struggle against foreign disinformation from transcending party politics and translating into national security on a bipartisan foundation.
March:
Focus Asia: India-Japan-Philippines: A Strategic Maritime Trilateral or More?, by Jagannath Panda
Regional powers like India, Japan, and the Philippines are exploring trilateral cooperation to counter Chinese influence while addressing economic and security goals. This Focus Asia paper examines the potential of an India-Japan-Philippines partnership in the Indo-Pacific maritime domain, focusing on bolstering “third country” ties, complementing ASEAN multilateralism, and advancing regional objectives. It evaluates bilateral and regional interactions, opportunities in connectivity, green transitions, supply chains, and alignment on the Taiwan question, concluding with the trilateral’s role in enhancing maritime security.
Report of the Webinar on “South Korea, India, and the Emerging Quad Plus Calculus”, by Giorgia Piovesan and Ana Carolina De Oliveira Assis
On February 7, 2024, the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) at ISDP hosted a webinar with experts from Korea, India, and beyond to discuss South Korea’s engagement with the Indo-Pacific and the Quad framework. The webinar explored several key questions: the significance of Seoul’s Indo-Pacific strategy, its motivations for greater cooperation with the Quad, and the potential evolution of a “Quint” or flexible “Quad Plus” platform. Additionally, the webinar delved into India-South Korea cooperation and their prospects for promoting minilateral frameworks in the region.
April:
Commentaries & Op-Eds: Navigating Uncertainty: How Multinationals Can Hedge Against Rising Tensions in the Taiwan Straits, by Brian Iselin
Amid escalating tensions in the Taiwan Straits, a critical hub for global tech manufacturing, multinationals face heightened risks to operations and supply chains. This blog post by Brian Iselin outlines key strategies for mitigating these challenges, including diversifying operations geographically, enhancing supply chain resilience, and leveraging financial hedging tools.
Blog Post: 70 Years of “Panchsheel”: China’s (Un)Peaceful Betrayal, by Jagannath Panda
Jagannath Panda writes about how and why India should establish strategic compatibility with the West vis-à-vis China on the Himalayan issue: Marking the 70th anniversary of the Panchsheel Agreement, this blog post critically examines China’s adherence to the agreement’s principles of peaceful coexistence. It highlights instances of deviation, exploring their implications for Sino-Indian relations and the broader regional stability in Asia.
May:
Focus Asia: Positive Paranoia: Chinese Interpretations of Indo-Pacific Geopolitics, by Julie Yu-Wen Chen, Jagannath Panda, and Richard Ghiasy
This Focus Asia paper seeks to interpret Chinese narratives on Indo-Pacific geopolitics by reviewing Chinese state media and scholarly opinions on Indo-Pacific geopolitics. For this purpose, the paper also examines the PRC’s interpretation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ‘Quad’ comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.) and the interplay with the three middle-power Quad partners. Similarly, it explores China-Europe dynamics in Chinese state media and official discourse, given the expansion of the European Union’s strategic interest in Indo-Pacific geopolitics.
Issue Brief: South Korea’s Road to Carbon Neutrality: Solutions and Obstacles, by Riccardo Villa and Julia Rösgren
Globally, energy security policies are gaining prominence as geopolitical tensions and climate concerns intersect. The escalating impacts of climate change, evident through extreme weather events like heatwaves, heavy snowfall, typhoons, and forest fires, underscore the urgency for action. In response, major developed countries are hastening their transitions towards a green economy to mitigate climate related disasters and their socioeconomic fallout. This issue brief covers South Korea has emerged as a pivotal player in the global transition towards carbon neutrality, driven by its strategic adoption of state-of-the-art green technologies and evolving policy frameworks aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy sources.
June:
Issue Brief: EU-Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Resilience amid the Digital and Green Transition, by Niklas Swanström and Kurt Abalos
As the European Union (EU) sets ambitious goals of maximizing a ‘Digital Decade’ through its Digital Transition plan and attaining carbon neutrality in its Green Transition plan, technology becomes the essential factor for the region to achieve its vision of a modern Europe. For decades, the region has relied on East Asia as a major source of technological inputs and finished products, especially for semiconductors. Among many major companies in the region, Taiwan’s Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) stands out to be the most important supplier of microchips for many modern economies. This paper explores the critical role of the EU-Taiwan semiconductor supply chain within the context of the EU’s Digital and Green Transitions and offers recommendations for strengthening the supply line between the two sides.
Book Chapter: China as a Mediator in North Korea: Facilitating Dialogues or Mediating Conflicts?, by Niklas Swanström
China has arguably emerged as a major power militarily, politically, and economically, extending its influence globally and within its immediate region. This influence has been increasingly asserted, as seen in areas like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and other sensitive zones worldwide. In this chapter on China and Conflict Mediation, Niklas Swanström analyzes China’s evolution in its approach to conflict facilitation and mediation in North Korea and the Korean Peninsula more broadly. Throughout the analysis, he examines the successes and challenges, influenced by geopolitics, that Beijing has faced in its focus on process building in facilitation and mediation efforts on the peninsula.
July:
Why the Himalayan Region Is Integral to a Rules-Based Order in the Indo-Pacific, by Jagannath Panda, Ryohei Kasai & Eerishika Pankaj
This piece examines whether the Himalayas as a whole should be placed at the center of Indo-Pacific strategies between India and the West. For China, Tibet is perhaps the most critical, but not the only, aspect of its growing Himalayan troubles. Most notably, China has a long-standing border dispute with India, which has kept getting more hostile since Xi Jinping came into power – recall the 2017 Doklam stand-off, the defining 2020 Galwan Clash, and the 2022 Tawang skirmish, to name but a few prominent contentions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Issue Brief: Taiwan-PRC Crisis: What Cross-Strait Conflict Could Cost Europe, by Niklas Swanström, Agust Börjesson, Filip Borges Månsson, and Kurt Abalos
The escalating tensions between Taiwan and China pose significant economic and strategic challenges to the European Union, such as the inaccessibility of Taiwanese inputs, market, and capital. This issue brief aims to examine Europe’s economic stake in the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. By outlining EU-Taiwan’s economic ties and emphasizing European interest in the self-governing island, this issue brief highlights the potential costs of a cross-strait crisis in Europe and what actions Europe needs to take.
August:
Special Paper: Taiwan and International Organizations – Between Security, Cooperation and Identity, edited by Agust Börjesson and Yi-Chieh Chen
International organizations are a historical point of contestation between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC), today commonly known as Taiwan. International organizations come in many forms and cover a range of issues including global governance, security, trade, and sports. Given Taiwan’s difficulties with international participation and the PRC’s hardening position on the matter, Taiwan’s situation with international organizations and its implications are increasingly relevant and important to understand.
Policy Brief: China’s Quest for Military Technology through Foreign and Civil Sources: Strategic Trends under Xi Jinping and Tactical Adjustments amid Geopolitical Challenges, by Yifei Zhu and Niklas Swanström
Over the past decades, the military capabilities of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have witnessed remarkable developments. n addition to indigenous innovation within the nation’s defense industry, the acquisition of external technology, spanning from military to dual-use (i.e., both military and civilian), has played a pivotal role in driving this progress.It’s essential to clarify that the term “external” here refers to acquisitions beyond the narrowly defined domestic defense industry, which encompasses mainly arsenals and defense contractors. In this context, China employs two primary forms of external technology acquisition.
September:
Issue Brief: Eco-Economic Balancing Act: the EU’s Approach to the China EV Trade Dispute, by Johannes Nordin
The European Commission unveiled in June the long-expected preliminary results from the ongoing anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturers. Applicable from July 5, 2024, a new provisional tariff regime will apply to EV imports until November, when the EU Council at the latest must-have voted to either make the tariffs permanent or lift them, pending the results from the 13-month probe. However, reactions to the Commission’s initial findings have varied widely within the EU, and it also remains disputed how the tariffs will impact EU competitiveness and trade relations with China.
Policy Brief: Navigating the Indo-Pacific: How Australia and the EU Can Partner for Peace, Stability, and Prosperity, by Jagannath Panda and Richard Ghiasy
To navigate the choppy waters of the Indo-Pacific, the EU and Australia must be on the same wavelength regarding shared interests in rules, values, and an open and liberal economic order. Headwinds are plenty as the underpinnings of peace and stability are currently frail in an era of Indo-Pacific (re-)ordering. Proactive minilaterals and the agency of middle powers such as Australia provide tailwinds. If the EU wants to be taken more seriously as a global geopolitical actor, its role and (perceived) effectiveness in the Indo-Pacific is the litmus test.
October:
ISDP Backgrounder: BRICS: Evolving into a Vehicle for Inclusive Multilateralism?
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is a group of major emerging economies that seeks to reform global governance and foster alternatives to established financial institutions. While the five original members share common goals, diverging ambitions exist for the direction and role for BRICS as an organization. This ISDP background report shows how the BRICS have partially avoided deeper vertical integration by opting for horizontal expansion.
Policy Brief: China’s Security Engagement with Africa and the Global South Narrative, by Fatoumata Diallo and Maud Descamps
China’s engagement with Africa has emerged as a critical element of its Global South strategy. Fostering stronger ties with African nations aligns with Beijing’s aims to create a multipolar global order and new norms that advance its geostrategic, political, and economic interests.
November:
Commentaries & Op-Eds: Russia is a systemic threat and Europe must wake up to face it, by Anna Wieslander
First, there is a widespread but mistaken belief that Russia’s war on Ukraine is a local issue, but in reality, Russia poses a broader systemic threat to the international order, not just a regional one. Russia is a systemic threat, demonstrated by its global ambitions, military build-up, hybrid warfare, nuclear rattling, and alignment with China, aiming to challenge the international order beyond Ukraine.
Issue Brief: Russian and DPRK Military Cooperation in Ukraine – A win-Win?, by Mats Engman, Johanna Miskolczi Persson, and Irene Spennacchio
In early August 2024, Ukraine launched a significant offensive in the Kursk region in Western Russia which may have prompted the activation of the DPRK-Russia Strategic Partnership Agreement and triggered the DPRK’s deployment of troops to Russia. The involvement of foreign military personnel represents a significant escalation and shift in the conflict, further complicating the geopolitical balance internationally as more actors become directly involved.
December:
Silk Road Paper: Central Asia in the Energy Transition, by Svante Cornell and Brenda Shaffer
The United States, Europe, the United Nations and more are promoting a top-down energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which shows no signs of emergence. Under this scenario, Europe and the global market are likely to maintain demand for the energy riches of Central Asia for many decades to come. The gas market of Central Asia itself requires additional gas volumes as well. In order to lower carbon emissions and air pollution and improve public health in Central Asia, the ideal policy in the region is increased access to natural gas that can replace the widespread burning of biomass and lump coal. Current European policies promote expanding electrification and is leading to a new look at nuclear energy. Accordingly, the uranium deposits of Central Asia have become of high commercial and geopolitical interest.
Special Paper: The Convergence of Disinformation: Examining Russia and China’s Partnership in the Digital Age, edited by Niklas Swanström and Filip Borges Månsson
The digital age has ushered in an era where the manipulation of information has become a potent, and easily accessible, tool in the arsenal of statecraft. Potential adversaries like Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have used disinformation to further their strategic goals, create discord, influence elections in democracies, and shape global narratives. While the focus is often on the individual disinformation efforts of these nations, understanding their potential collaboration in this area reveals the depth and complexity of the challenge faced by liberal democracies.