Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis

Niklas Swanström and Andrew Scobell

Commentaries and Op-eds December, 2024
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has catalyzed a profound shift in global power dynamics: the deepening of the partnership between China and Russia. This relationship, while rooted in history, represents a significant departure from previous patterns of cooperation. China-Russia ties have evolved from a transactional relationship of convenience to a more durable strategic alignment, while continuing to fall short of a full-blown military alliance. This development challenges traditional Western assumptions about the limits of authoritarian cooperation and may signal the emergence of a new model of international partnership.

 

China’s assistance to Russia has arguably prolonged the war, awakened NATO and the EU to the dangers of the China-Russia axis, and forced Brussels and other capitals to take stronger measures against Beijing and Moscow than anyone could have anticipated. The cooperation between China and Russia, as well as North Korea and Iran, has deepened in ways that few would have thought possible before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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