Avenues to Europe: China’s Relationship with Hungary

Over the past decade China has demonstrated an ever-increasing interest in both the countries and regional dynamics of Eastern Europe. As a part of their ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has sought to infuse its foreign relations with infrastructure projects that imbue countries in need of economic transformation to pivot towards their development aims. One country that has been a focal point of European debate over the specter of Chinese economic engagement, is Hungary.

Beijing, Budapest and Brussels

The enhanced relationship between China and Hungary has generated
concern among European commentators and policy watchers who are wary of the
country’s populist shift. Under the leadership of Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán
,
the government of Hungary has become closely associated with institutionalized
Euro-skepticism, Islamophobia and alleged corruption. This has raised fears
that Beijing may unwittingly be emboldening leaders such as Orbán to pressure
Brussels and pursue
its own national agenda
(without criticism), by dangling the specter of
China as an alternative partner.

However, this relationship is not so
simple as to be merely a product of Hungarian defiance or a desire by China to
capitalize on the country’s isolationism. The BRI and the EU can both be viewed
as foreign policy projects aimed at altering the socio-political context within
which they operate through economic means, in order to advance long-term goals,
albeit in very different ways. However, the ways in which EU Member States interact
with what has rapidly become China’s signature foreign policy project can prove
illustrative of future relations. Perhaps tellingly, the space devoted to
exploring Sino-EU relations receive short shrift in President Xi Jinping’s
seminal “The Governance of China Volume
II
,” while Hungary is the only European country cited as part of effort to
coordinate national development plans in a separate chapter. 

There is a grander project at play here, which has given EU politicians
cause for concern, which is the Sixteen
plus One Framework (16+1)
. Officially
launched at a 2012 summit in Warsaw, the idea was to foster regional
cooperation by enhancing trade ties and infrastructure integration in sixteen
Central and Eastern European Countries. Ostensibly, this would allow for better
cross-border cooperation and full completion of projects like the Budapest
– Belgrade railways
, while at the
same time allowing Beijing to effectively structure its investments and
engagement to the region. For Hungary, this has become an opportunity

Sino-Hungarian Relations: Towards Peace, Growth, Reform and Civilization? 

China has signaled its willingness to support Hungary’s national
development strategy by further integrating it into the BRI. To do this, both
sides seek to expand
the scale of bilateral trade
and investment, as well as deepening
infrastructure development and regional connectivity. There have also been
signals that Beijing may wish to introduce competitive Hungarian products into
its markets, although the issue of access to Chinese domestic markets remains a
controversial subject. One area in which Chinese policy makers have been very
happy to foster ties, is in the lucrative tourism sector. China and Hungary
have both sought to make room for tourist
and leisure exchanges
, as well as ways to promote people to people
connections in areas such as civil aviation and education. 

Interestingly, while Hungary has sought to strengthen relations with China
under the aegis of the BRI, Hungarian foreign policy under Orbán can also be said to be
underpinned with an eastward facing orientation. Budapest has, since it joined
the NATO alliance in 1999, cozied up to Moscow and there are indications that
Russian influence has made itself felt in Hungarian politics. Perhaps
unsurprisingly, this relationship has followed the contours of energy supplies,
with the Russian state company “Rusatom” playing a key role in expanding
Hungary’s “Paks
Nuclear Power Plant”
. This, coupled with overtly supportive statements to
Turkey’s President Erdogan and India’s Prime Minister Modi, and not least Orbán’s
comments about “illiberal
democracy”
, have fostered concerns both within Hungary and Europe that
Budapest is seeking to forge an authoritarian alliance. 

Hungary’s enthusiastic embrace of the 16+1 Framework and often raucous
relationship with the EU has engendered suspicions of Budapest’s ambitions.
Reports in the German newspaper Handelsblatt
that the Hungarian ambassador refused
to join his EU colleagues in signing
a joint letter criticizing the BRI has stoked fears among European politicians
that Beijing may be pursuing a divide and conquer policy within the EU, by
courting individual states. However, at least one study into Hungarian
media
found that the overwhelming majority of articles portrayed China in a neutral light, though with a slight
inclination towards negative coverage of China. Overall, much of the discourse focused
on economic rather than political relations with China, and it appears likely
that the Prime Minister is paying lip service to Beijing’s political position
rather than crafting diplomatic positions to make his government a permanent
fixture of the CPC’s policies. 

Asking the Right Questions

While there is a lingering notion that Chinese supported initiatives in
Hungary may amount to a Trojan Horse attempt to undermine EU norms, the fears
felt in Western European states may reveal more about political relationships
within the EU and Budapest than Chinese strategic thinking. Opacity and
widespread graft certainly exist in Hungary and this could lend itself to
practices that can have a deleterious effect on the long-term health of the
country’s economy and society.

For this reason, foreign investment practices and engagement should justifiably
be subject to public scrutiny, especially in politically sensitive arenas such
as infrastructure and energy supply. The recent warnings from the U.S. to
Hungary and other allies that they should pull out of their 5G
network contracts with Huawei
due to concerns of the information security
threats the company could cause, is testament to this. Alongside this,
Hungarian political leaders and Chinese investors should not be encouraged to
cry Sinophobia whenever more light is being shed on the contours of 16+1
engagement.