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Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
The ISDP wishes you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We look forward to the coming year with new events, publications and dialogues! 2024 was an eventful year and the various programs and centers of the ISDP, as well as guest authors, published a considerable number of publications. Now, at the end of the year, we would like to look back on 2024 with a selected list of 24 publications by ISDP colleagues.
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Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis
Niklas Swanström and Andrew Scobell write about how the West, and the world at large, must find a nuanced approach to deal with China-Russia chemistry. They argue that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has catalyzed a profound shift in global power dynamics: the deepening of the partnership between China and Russia. This relationship, while rooted in history, represents a significant departure from previous patterns of cooperation. China-Russia ties have evolved from a transactional relationship of convenience to a more durable strategic alignment while continuing to fall short of a full-blown military alliance. This development challenges traditional Western assumptions about the limits of authoritarian cooperation and may signal the emergence of a new model of international partnership, write Swanström and Scobell. They further write that China’s assistance to Russia has arguably prolonged the war, awakened NATO and the EU to the dangers of the China-Russia axis, and forced Brussels and other capitals to take stronger measures against Beijing and Moscow than anyone could have anticipated. The cooperation between China and Russia, as well as North Korea and Iran, has deepened in ways that few would have thought possible before Russia invaded Ukraine. Read this piece by Swanström and Scobell at the USIP here.
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Washington’s U-turn to the Indian Ocean Island Countries
Radhey Tambi writes about why the American approach towards the Indian Ocean countries is unlikely to change. She argues that the Indian Ocean has largely remained aloof from the presence of the U.S. Navy, until the beginning of the Second World War. The marginal presence during and after the war increased exponentially with the British withdrawal in 1971 under the East of Suez policy. Washington used the ideal locations on island countries to develop a military base or tracking stations. However, never in its history of engagement did the U.S. come out with a policy paper focusing exclusively on the IOR, with the mention of island countries in it. But both these components are well reflected in the Indian Ocean Region Strategic Review Act 2024. Till now, the Indian Ocean itself has just been mentioned substantively in important U.S. policy papers like the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Donald Trump might likely continue with that strategy, writes Radhey Tambi. Read this piece here.
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Martial Law and Political Polarization: What’s in Store for South Korea?
This issue brief by Josephine Ørgaard Rasmussen and Mats Engman cover the implication of the imposition of martial law in South Korea and the emerging political polarization in the country. They write that on December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared emergency martial law, shocking both the country and the rest of the world. However, the martial law was only in place for a few hours before being rescinded by the National Assembly. Yoon’s decision to impose martial law sparked protests in both civic society and the opposition, with many urging that he and his supporters accept responsibility for their actions. Following weeks of uncertainty and a lack of consistent action to deal with the fallout from the martial law debacle, the National Assembly impeached Yoon on December 14, stripping him of presidential powers while the Constitutional Court conducts an investigation. The long-term implications, both domestic and external, will be significant, as South Korea continues to face uncertainty due to radical changes in leadership, prolonged political polarization, and an unclear foreign policy direction over the next 6-12 months, write Rasmussen and Engman. Download and read this issue brief here.
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Indian Classics Empower Strategic Thinking
Vasileios Syros writes on the value and relevance of the Indian classics that empower strategic thinking. He writes that new readings of ancient texts feed into the Indian Government’s mandate to generate a distinct strategic culture nurtured by India’s age-old wisdom in statecraft and strategy as well as by the vision of Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India). The Indian Government has projected ancient philosophical ideas as a source of inspiration for the Indian Army to upgrade its strategic capabilities, tackle the challenges of future warfare, and communicate and work together with global partners, writes Vasileios Syros. Udbhav can offer a valuable window into the implementation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2021 directive to the armed forces to eliminate obsolete practices, which have outlived their utility, and to the overall process of the decolonization/Indianization and modernization of various sectors, notably education, science, health, and defense. Read this piece here.
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“Yizhou 夷洲” and “Liuqiu 流求” in Historical Chinese Texts: International Relations on the Northeast Asian Seas (3rd-17th Centuries)
Scholars have relied on descriptions of Yizhou and Liuqiu customs and material production as evidence for their arguments on contested Seas. This has included practices such as tattooing and raw fish consumption, the production of copper and iron, and horse breeding. However, these cultural and material characteristics have little bearing on the dominion of Yizhou and Liuqiu, and customs and production of the islands changed across the millennium following the 3rd century. Instead, this paper by Man-houng Lin and Yi-Chen Huang examines the categorization of Yizhou and Liuqiu as “barbarian” or “foreign” in Chinese literature, their political and military organizations, location, and international relations, as well as the relative historical development of Ryukyu and Taiwan. The Asia Paper is a brief overview of academic work identifying Yizhou and Liuqiu with Taiwan or Ryukyu. Read and download this Asia Paper written by Man-houng Lin and Yi-Chen Huang here.
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Niklas Swanström and Filip Borges Månsson bring out a special paper that analyzes how the digital age has ushered in an era where the manipulation of information has become a potent, and easily accessible, tool in the arsenal of statecraft by powers like China and Russia. The paper argue that it is imperative to understand the implications of disinformation as a tool in the digital age, and how authoritarian states like the PRC and Russia systematically use it to their advantage. Albeit in different manners, by understanding how the two states operate and use disinformation for their benefit, one can begin to draw patterns to see of the two states may (or may not) collaborate on that front, whilst also provide some needed insights on how western democratic states, whom are heavily affected by disinformation and manipulation of information, may effectively counter disinformation whilst continuously valuing democratic values in a digital age that has in many aspects grown more polarized. This volume with a collection of essays from subject experts aims to outline further the experiences in Asia and in Europe seeking to understand the commonalities and differences between the modus operandi used by Moscow and Beijing. It also explores whether these states cooperate formally or informally. Besides, this special paper includes forward-looking chapters that discuss how democratic societies can and should collaborate to address the modern challenge of disinformation. Download and read this special paper here.
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Challenging Western Views: Understanding Power and Stability in East Asia; An Interview with DAVID C. KANG
Dr. David C. Kang, a leading expert on East Asian security affairs, international relations, and political economy, recently co-authored with Xinru Ma a book titled “Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of US-China Relations”, published by Columbia University Press (2024), that examines the historical patterns of East Asian order and their implications for contemporary U.S.-China relations. Dr. Kang discusses how East Asia’s unique historical dynamics challenge Western theories of power transitions and balancing. They examine the region’s stability, shaped by historical hierarchies and pragmatic coexistence, and highlight South Korea’s role as a middle power balancing U.S. and China ties. The interview, conducted by Marta Chiusi with assistance from Léna Fargier and Alexander Droop, explores soft power, economic diplomacy, and multilateralism in maintaining regional stability in East Asia. Read the full interview with David C. Kang here.
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China’s Himalayan Hustle: Revisionism Resistance Must be the Order of the Region
This Stockholm Paper from the ISDP brings together diverse yet specialized analysis to highlight the challenges and opportunities in mapping China’s Himalayan hustle. It aims to advance key debates about the importance of this region to maintain a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and to defend the liberal international order. It is also a valuable contribution to the literature on China’s attempts to dominate the Himalayan region and its resources, and will generate new insights on how to integrate this strategically vital region into the Indo-Pacific construct. This special Stockholm Paper argues that pooling resources among the “like minded” Indo-Pacific partners and increasing ways to improve media attention on the impact of Chinese policies/actions in the Himalayas is the only effective way to resist its radical revisionism. Read and download this Stockholm Paper here.
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Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
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Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis
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Washington’s U-turn to the Indian Ocean Island Countries
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Martial Law and Political Polarization: What’s in Store for South Korea?
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Indian Classics Empower Strategic Thinking
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“Yizhou 夷洲” and “Liuqiu 流求” in Historical Chinese Texts: International Relations on the Northeast Asian Seas (3rd-17th Centuries)
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Challenging Western Views: Understanding Power and Stability in East Asia; An Interview with DAVID C. KANG
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China’s Himalayan Hustle: Revisionism Resistance Must be the Order of the Region
Latest Publications
The Convergence of Disinformation: Examining Russia and China’s Partnership in the Digital Age
The spread of disinformation has been a longstanding issue since the establishment of communication between societies. It has been used as a tool to spread propaganda and deceive adversaries in […]
China’s Himalayan Hustle: Revisionism Resistance Must be the Order of the Region
This edited volume brings together papers to highlight the challenges and opportunities in mapping China’s Himalayan hustle. It aims to advance key debates about the importance of this region to […]
Challenging Western Views: Understanding Power and Stability in East Asia; An Interview with DAVID C. KANG
Dr. David C. Kang is Maria Crutcher Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California. A leading expert in East Asian security, international relations, and political economy, Dr. […]
Books
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Arabs, Turks and Persians: Geopolitics and Ideology in the Greater Middle East
For decades, the Greater Middle East has been a leading challenge to American foreign policy. This vast region – ranging from North Africa in the west to Afghanistan in the […]
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The US and EU, and the Emerging Supply Chain Network: Politics, Prospects, and Allies
The Global Supply Chains have evolved from simply logistical achievements to being the bedrock of the global economy. Driven by technological advances and geopolitical shifts, this transformation underscores the critical […]
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IN DEFENSE OF THE LIBERAL INTERNATIONAL ORDER
In recent years, the geopolitical fight for global economic, diplomatic, and institutional control has acutely intensified, accentuating the crisis in the existing post-World War II Liberal International Order (LIO), championed […]
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Quad Plus and Indo-Pacific: The Changing Profile of International Relations
This book explores how the Quad Plus mechanism is set to reshape the global multilateral economic and security co-operations between Quad partner countries and the rest of the world. With […]