Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Military Exercises in Restraining Taiwan’s Leadership
Yi-Chieh Chen
Beijing has been using coercive approaches to restrain Taiwan’s voices for decades. The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996 set a precedent for Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises to deter Taiwan’s leadership from advocating sovereignty and deepening its relations with other countries. Between 2022 and 2024, China conducted several large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in response to statements made by Taiwan’s leadership. With many military exercises being conducted as part of its coercive strategies, Beijing still faces the challenge of restraining Taiwan’s leadership. Under the leadership of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan has consistently advocated for its sovereignty and sought greater engagement in international affairs. The effectiveness of China’s military exercise as a coercive tool to restrain Taiwan’s leadership thus is questionable. This brief analyzes the effectiveness of China’s use of military exercises to impact the behaviors of Taiwan’s leadership, focusing on the period between 2022 and 2024.
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