TURKISH QUAGMIRE: WHY TURKEY BLOCKS SWEDEN’S NATO ACCESSION
Halil M. Karaveli
Turkey was bound to have issues with Sweden and its pro-Kurdish stance, and singled out Sweden because of its longstanding commitment to Kurdish aspirations. However, it is the continued US support for Kurds that is Turkey’s main concern. The issue is not what Sweden says or does, but what the US does or fails to do on the ground in Syria that is consequential for Turkey’s national security interests – and this will decide its position on the Nordic enlargement of NATO that the US government is pushing for. Turkey is going to remain pro-Western, but it will also, as it is showing today, stand its own ground and not hesitate to confront other Western powers. Turkey is not going to defer to the US as it did during the Cold War. Nonetheless, the hard strategic interests of the US and Turkey coincide to a much larger extent than what appearances suggest. Washington will have to decide what it cares most about: the survival of the PKK-linked Syrian Kurdish statelet or a strengthened NATO with Sweden as a member. Ultimately, the crisis in NATO over Sweden’s membership will only be overcome when the US and Turkey resolve to address their differences and reach a new, mutual understanding.
Read this policy paper by Halil Karaveli published at the Stockholm Free World Forum.
Related Publications
-
Turkey’s Problem Isn’t Sweden. It’s the United States.
The issue isn’t what Sweden says or does but what the United States does or fails to do on the ground in Syria that matters for Turkey’s national security interests. […]
-
What might 2023 bring for the security situation in Europe in view of the ongoing rivalry between the superpowers, the war in Ukraine and the economic crisis?
The ramifications of the era-defining year that was 2022 will continue to be felt in 2023 – from the return of war to Europe and its multifaceted aftermath (social, humanitarian, […]
-
Keeping Everyone Happy: India Balances Historical Ties with Russia with its National Interest
Almost one year into the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia’s military offensive against Ukraine shows no sign of waning: the fighting continues, and so does the scale […]
-
Engaging The Indo-Pacific: Some Pointers For Europe
The regional dynamics of the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR), especially maritime security-related, are distinctly different from other regions, especially Europe. There are existential sub-regional dynamics that vary across the IPR, which […]
-
Taiwan: Tokyo’s New Ally?
In December 2022, the back-to-back visits by senior Japanese lawmakers, Koichi Hagiuda, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Policy Research Council chairman, and Hiroshige Seko, the upper house secretary general […]
-
Revitalizing INSTC: Analyzing Geopolitical Realignments and the China Factor
In recent years, the rise of Asia as the geoeconomic and geostrategic fulcrum has not only realigned global geopolitics but also reasserted the need for regional connectivity. For example, the […]